The Iranian Uranium Enrichment Agreement in a Nutshell

 

By Terry A. AmRhein, Author of Democracy on the Edge

 

The United States and the rest of the world have been given an opportunity to prevent Iran from producing a nuclear weapon.  But there are extreme risks involved in the agreement.  What are these risks?  Should the US take the risk?

            In 2008, intelligence discovered that Iran had built a Uranium enrichment facility.  The US started negotiating with Iran to limit production of enriched uranium¹⁾ but with little progress.  In 2010, when the world became aware that Iran had uranium enrichment facilities, action began to happen.  The five members of the United Nations Security Council, (US, Great Britain, France, China, Russia) plus Germany agreed to impose strong sanctions on Iran and these sanctions held tight.  In addition, the UN imposed sanctions on Iran’s banking and finance system preventing payment for oil revenues from reaching Iranian banks.  By 2013 Iran had significant stock piles of enriched Uranium that could be turned into a bomb with further enrichment.  The sanctions though were having their effect and Iran attitude became more earnest.

            After 20 months of negotiating, the UN Security Council members plus Germany reached an agreement with Iran.  Here’s what the agreement entails:

 

1) Iran will reduce its stockpile of low enriched Uranium to 98% of it present level (i.e to 660 LB or 300 Kilograms), half of what it would take to make a bomb and keep it at this level for 15 years. 

2) For the next 15 years, Iran will keep its number of high speed centrifuges to a low enough number so that it would take one year to enrich enough uranium to produce a bomb.²⁾ 

3) For the next 15 years, Iran must not enrich uranium above 3.67% U235, the concentration required for a commercial nuclear reactor.

4) During this time, Iran will permit detailed inspections of nuclear facilities by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and by the international community.  Up to a 24 day prior notice of the inspection is required.

5) Iran will convert its heavy water nuclear reactor³⁾ designed to make plutonium, into a reactor that cannot make plutonium.⁴⁾

           

            Here’s what Iran gets in return:

1) Iran will have a small portion of the international sanction lifted immediately but most of the sanctions will stay in affect until Iran completes implementation of the agreement.  This is scheduled to take about 6 months.

2) Following complete implementation, the sanctions will be lifted.  Iran will then have access to about $100 billion of the oil money that has been held in escrow by international banks.

3) After 5 years, the embargo on Iran’s receiving conventional weapons will be lifted.  After 8 years, the embargo on receiving missile technology will also be lifted.

 

Any breach of the agreement would cause the UN sanctions to “snap back” into place.

 

            The discussion of the agreement has been strenuous and varied.  Some say this could be a remarkably good deal.  Others, particularly Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, declare this is a sure way for Iran to get a nuclear weapon.  Senator John McCain said that this will lead to an Iranian “shopping spree” because after 5 years, Iran will have access to $100 billion to buy weapons and after 8 years will access to missile technology.

 

            Some believe that if Iran does break the agreement, the sanctions will not “snap back” into place as the Obama administration claims.  They point out that it took significant effort to establish the sanctions in the first place and the chance of re-establishing them is not likely.   Also the UN Security Council and Germany has already agreed with the deal, somewhat upstaging the US.  If the US now fails to pass the deal, the US will look like the rogue nation. Other point out that Iran will have up to 24 days to “sanitize” any inspection site before any inspection occurs and thus could hide their bomb enrichment process.

 

            During the Republican Presidential Nominee debate on August 6, it was apparent that the Republican candidates for president, are unanimously against Iran Nuclear deal.  Rand Paul expressed the opinion that if the US negotiated from a position of power, we could have gotten a better deal.  (Although he doesn’t explain what a “position of power” is.  Usually in a negotiation, if one party starts out by saying “If you don’t do what I want, I’m going to hit you in the head”, the negotiations don’t get too far.)  On Friday August 10, Senators Chuck Schumer of New York declared that he would not support the nuclear deal.  Chuck Schumer is the likely Senate major leader after Harry Reid leaves next year and represents a symbol for other democrats to likewise vote against the deal.  To scuttle the deal, however, opponents have two high hurdles. They will need 60 votes in the Senate to overcome a filibuster by supporters of the accord. If the opponents get that, the president will veto the resolution. The opponents would then have to get of two-thirds of the lawmakers in both chambers to override the veto.      

 

            During this process, President Obama and Secretary Kerry have stressed that

1) If the deal is turned down, that Iran will almost certainly continuing enriching Uranium and obtain a bomb within a relative short time.

2) That the inspections will be complete and though and if Iran is enriching beyond 3.67% or the number of centrifuges is exceeded or other terms of the agreement are broken, that sanctions and any other action (e.g. bombing) that is available now, can be implemented at the time the agreement is broken.        

3) That this agreement is only an interim agreement.  That during the next years, US will attempt to negotiate further with Iran to persuade them to give up their desire to make nuclear bombs.  Obama indicates that this represents a opportunity to establish better relationships with Iran. (Remember during the late 1970s, when the Shah of Iran was in power, relationship with Iran was more congenial)

           

So this is the Iranian Uranium Enrichment agreement in a nut shell, hopefully explained simply enough that you don’t have to be a physicist to understand it.  This agreement affects every American.  You should have an opinion about it because it will affect you, your children and your grandchildren.  Then tell your US Senator what you think.

Democracy on the Edge

 

 

Footnotes:

1)  Most of Uranium is 238 containing 92 protons and 147 neutrons in its nucleus.  Uranium 238, called U238, however will not fission and therefore cannot be used as a bomb.  To have a bomb you need U235, 92 protons and only 143 neutrons.  To refine U235 from normal Uranium you must separate the two “isotopes”.  The Uranium containing higher quantities of U235 is called “enriched Uranium”.

2) High speed centrifuges spend extremely fast.  Since the uranium isotopes have different weights, they tend to concentrate is different regions in the centrifuge.  By judiciously gathering the right isotope from the right region you can slowly concentrate the isotope that you want, i.e. you can concentrate the U235.  Uranium must be over 90% U235 to make a bomb.

3) Normal water, H2O, contain two hydrogen atoms.  Each hydrogen atom contains only one proton with an electron circling around it.  But some hydrogen atoms can have one proton and one neutron in its nucleus with an electron circling around.  This hydrogen atom has a special  name called deuterium and since it has two particles in the nucleus, the water it makes is called “heavy water”.

4)  You make plutonium Pu239 from U238 by having the uraniumU238 absorb a neutron and through a nuclear reaction U238 becomes Pu239.